So, we've got the nation's most widely-cited crime data analyst on the show to explain what's going on. Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics runs a crime database that updates weekly, but manages to track closely to the FBI's reports. However, he's able to report crime trends months or even years before the FBI.

Asher said the latest news is very good.

Murder is on a record decline as we move through the halfway point of 2025. Asher said the murder decline isn't just happening at a record pace, but it's likely to end at a record low as well. He noted the decline is nationwide and puts some cities below the raw number of murders seen in previous decades, not just the murder per capita rate.

Asher also analyzed some of the common reasons offered up for why murder has fallen, and said it's not easy to explain. But he also gives his preferred theory.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

That's why we have Jeff Asher from AH Datalytics back on the show. He has been following and reporting crime data for decades, and he explains how dramatic the downturn in murder is compared to the incredible spike we saw just a few years ago. He said 2023 saw a record drop in murder, and 2024 is on pace to see the same.

Asher discussed how crime stats are calculated, addressed some of the critiques of them, and explained why he believes murder data is especially trustworthy this year. He also noted violent crime and property crime haven't followed murder. While they, too, have fallen in recent years, they also never saw the same kind of horrendous spike that murder did in 2020 and 2021.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

That's why Robert VerBruggen from National Review and the Manhattan Institute is joining us. He's been writing about the ins and outs of crime data for years and has produced some of the most insightful commentary I've seen.

With data from the FBI, CDC, and elsewhere indicating a significant increase in murder over the past two years, VerBruggen walks us through the trend and its implications. He also explains why the FBI's data is less reliable than its ever been before and what impact that has on everything. He said that as we've seen a historic change in the murder rate, the FBI's reporting capabilities have become historically bad.

However, VerBruggen said there is still a lot we can figure out from what we do know. For instance, he said it's unlikely that the gun sales spike fueled the murder spike. Instead, he argues police pullback in the wake of the 2020 riots is largely to blame. However, even that conclusion comes with significant nuance due to how widespread the spike has been. 

We also hear from Reload Member Allen, who is a new gun owner living in New York City. He explains why he decided to buy his first gun just over a year ago and what the onerous process for actually obtaining a shotgun has been like.

Plus, Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I discuss a federal ruling blocking enforcement of the most controversial portions of New York's latest gun-carry law.

Special Guest: Robert VerBruggen.