That's why we have Let's Talk to Them director Jordan Estrada back on the show. His organization attempts to adapt lessons from research into the causes of mass shootings, such as work from The Violence Project, and apply them to real-world efforts. It tries to funnel those who are experiencing a potentially violent mental health spiral toward resources that can off ramp them from the path of violence.

Estrada said his group believes they can apply similar techniques to disuade potential assassins from carrying out attacks, too. He said the two violent phenomena share a number of similarities. But he also noted there are some differences as well.

That's why he and Let's Talk to Them are currently working on securing funding for a scientific study to better understand how prevalent mass shooting and assassination ideation really are among Americans. Then, they also want to better understand the sorts of arguments that might convince people considering those forms of violence not to go through with it.

Using the lessons learned from that research, Estrada said his group plans to further update the programs it's already using to successfully off-ramp potential shooters across the country.

Special Guest: Jordan Estrada.

On our last episode, we spoke with crime data analyst Jeff Asher about what it looks like murder might hit an all-time low this year. Now, we're talking with criminologist James Alan Fox about how we've yet to see a public mass shooting this year.

Fox, a Northeastern University professor who's studied mass killings for decades, said the tracker he runs for the Associated Press and USA Today hasn't found a single public mass shooting to date. He noted the decline actually dates back to last year, which saw an unusually small number of mass shootings as well. He argued the trend disproves the idea mass shootings constitute an "epidemic."

Fox said it's more reasonable to see mass shootings as rare events that have increased slowly over time, but not a lot more than population growth. He said the recent decline comes after a record high in 2023 and may be the result of the trend returning to its baseline. Still, he argued that the way many media outlets cover mass shootings, and the differing definitions they rely on, tend to mislead the public on their prevalence.

Special Guest: James Alan Fox.

Jordan Estrada is the founder and director of Let's Talk to Them. His group takes the latest research on mass shooters, much of which we've talked about on the show before, and tries to put its lessons into practice. The innovative project, which just received its IRS non-profit status, attempts to find people who are considering committing a mass shooting or other act of violence and pull them out of their downward spiral.

Estrada said he and his team consulted with numerous experts before launching their program. They concluded most mass shooters are not predetermined to commit violence. Instead, they are more like people who are experiencing suicidal ideation and can be dissuaded from going through with their attacks.

He pointed to a passage in the Buffalo shooter's writings that indicated he had doubts about carrying out his killing spree but was egged on by visiting 4chan. Estrada said Let's Talk to Them has built a program designed to do the opposite. He said the goal is to talk them down off the ledge, saving their lives and the lives of potential victims.

Special Guest: Jordan Estrada.

This is good news, but it's also a bit confusing. Why is the murder rate dropping after several years of increasing? Is the same effect happening with mass shootings? Does the data show the two are connected?

That's why we've got data analyst Jeff Asher back on the show. He runs AH Datalytics and collects his own crime statistics. He joined us last year when his crime data suggested 2023 would see a huge downturn in murder across the country. He was right.

This year, he's seeing an even larger decline. Mass shootings are down, too. Whatever definition you use for the awful phenomenon, and we discuss the pros and cons of the different ones out there, the downtrend is interesting--especially since it now appears to track with overall murder.

Jeff does his best to explain why these trends are happening and look forward, though he emphasizes the future is impossible to predict.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

That's why I reached out to Cam Edwards, editor of Bearing Arms and longtime newsman, to give his opinion on the story and discuss mine as well. Cam recently interviewed Parkland father Ryan Petty about The Post's decision and how some families have reacted to it. He said Petty and several other families were disturbed by The Post publishing the images, especially since not everyone affected was directly contacted by the paper.

Cam argued that The Post's decision to selectively publish only pictures from mass shootings that featured AR-15s made the effort transparently political. We discussed how pictures from other mass killings are almost certainly equally disturbing. But The Post singled out AR-15s as part of a clear effort to get those particular guns banned, something that was underlined by an editorial published alongside the pictures.

Cam said he didn't view The Post's efforts as journalism. Instead, he argued the paper was engaged in direct activism.

Plus, Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I talk about the strange reasoning a federal judge used to uphold Colorado's gun waiting period.

Special Guest: Cam Edwards.

That's why I wanted to bring on one of the leading experts currently studying mass shootings. Metro State University Professor James Densley is one of the co-founders of The Violence Project, which has the most detailed and comprehensive database of mass shootings dating back to 1966. He is also the co-author of the book by the same name that outlines potential real-world solutions to the phenomenon.

Professor Densley explained why he believes the count they use, which only includes public attacks where four or more people are killed for reasons unrelated to other criminal conduct, gives the most accurate understanding of mass shootings. He said it's important to properly define terms when you're attempting to seriously study a problem and identify trends so you can craft solutions.

He laid out some of the common patterns seen in the lives of mass shooters before they carry out their attacks. For instance, he said most shooters have a long history of abuse and trauma before they decide to do the unthinkable. And the shootings almost always follow an inciting incident that sends the shooter into a crisis state.

Densley argued that a potential attacker could be "off-ramped" at any point along that path, whether it's after they first experience abuse or after they begin experiencing an inciting crisis. What's necessary is for those who recognize the warning signs to step in and do something to help. And that resources to help are made available and known to those looking to carry out that kind of intervention.

But those aren't the only interventions Densley believes are necessary. He said firearms restrictions of some kind should be part of the equation as well, especially for those showing warning signs they may be a threat to themselves or others. We go back and forth on why gun-rights advocates and gun owners are not as open to those ideas as Densley would like them to be.

Ultimately, Densley said he believes mass shootings are not an inevitability and can be prevented through action on the individual and societal level--even if not everyone agrees on every aspect of the solutions he proposes.

Plus, Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I discuss a new win in court for marijuana users who want to own guns.

Special Guest: James Densley.

That's why I wanted to bring on an expert in active shooter situations to give some insight into what causes these events and how they might be prevented. There are few people with a better understanding of the situation than the person who created the FBI's research program on active shooters: Katherine Schweit.

She literally wrote the book on how to stop the killing.

Schweit created the FBI's definition of "active shooter." While most media or activist counts for "mass shooting" focus on how many people are shot or killed, the FBI doesn't have an official definition for the term. Instead, it focuses on identifying people who attempt to carry out random public shootings regardless of whether they are successful.

That makes it narrower than most definitions used by major media outlets, which incorporated many gang or crime-related shootings, but broader than definitions from the Associated Press or Mother Jones that focus on mass shootings where the attacker is able to kill many people. Schweit said that was the goal of her approach since it gives an opportunity to study trends that appear among those who attempt these attacks.

She said nearly all of the active shooters the FBI has profiled over the past decade are young men. Most use handguns. And most are triggered by a combination of different stressors such as financial distress or social ostracization.

Shcweit said the FBI's research has identified ways that shootings can be prevented. She said a big part of the solution is for people to speak up when they notice the warning signs somebody may be spiraling toward violence. She even explained a recent example where a co-worker successfully stopped a likely attacker after he threatened to carry out an attack.

Plus, Contributing Editor Paul Crookston joins the show to talk about the flood of post-Bruen lawsuits.

Special Guest: Katherine Schweit.