To do that, we have Semafor's Dave Weigel on the show. He joined us shortly before the election to discuss each campaign's gun messaging. Now, he's back to sort through what worked, what didn't, and where things go from here.

Weigel agreed there probably wasn't enough detailed evidence to suss out exactly how well each message performed. But he said the recent downturn in Democratic support for handgun bans is probably tied to Kamala Harris emphasizing her Glock ownership. However, the fact handgun bans are so unpopular to begin with probably underscores how much her history of backing such bans drug her campaign down.

He also looked ahead at the new GOP-controlled federal government. Weigel said Donald Trump may be more motivated to undo what Joe Biden has done rather than push new gun-rights reforms of his own. He also said Congress is unlikely to pass significant new legislation but will be able to confirm a lot of pro-gun judges--though, he noted the GOP majority may be more fragile than it appears at first glance.

Special Guest: Dave Weigel.

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The time to cover the daily developments on the campaign trail is over. Now, it's time to look ahead at what the realistic expectations on gun policy should be for a potential Trump or Harris administration. To do that, I've brought somebody from an outlet on nearly the opposite side of the spectrum from The Reload.

Jennifer Mascia has been a reporter at The Trace, a non-profit publication with ties to Everytown for Gun Safety, since it was founded. She is well-sourced inside the gun-control movement and closely follows gun politics news. She joins the show to help suss out the most likely policies Trump or Harris would pursue and by what means.

Mascia and I agreed legislation is the least likely area for change since Republicans are likely to gain a Senate majority regardless of who wins the presidency--but only a narrow majority. Instead, the real action will be in court appointments and executive actions. There, Harris may be more restrained by both a Republican Senate and the amount of gun action President Joe Biden has already undertaken. Trump is likely to continue judicial appointments in line with his first term while potentially firing the ATF Director Biden appointed and undoing his executive actions, though it's hard to say how far he'd expand beyond that.

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Special Guest: Jennifer Mascia.

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To do that, we've got Hot Air's Ed Morrissey back on the show. He said he isn't surprised to see the gun-control groups outraising the NRA and its allies. He argued it would probably take several more cycles for former NRA donors to be comfortable enough to give to the movement again.

He was skeptical the money advantage will translate to a big electoral advantage at the end of the day, especially in the highest profile races. And he said gun-control ads leaning on abortion issues, while potentially understandable, is a sign the groups don't think gun control is a top priority. Although, he also said the ability of the gun-control groups to spend big in local and state races could have a significant impact.

He also gave his view of the effectiveness of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's gun messaging in 2024, which was different from the views outlined by our previous guests, David French and Tim Miller. While neither Ed nor I make endorsements of candidates, we did briefly discuss our differing views of the dangers of either candidate.

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Special Guest: Ed Morrissey.

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That's why we have Tim Miller of The Bulwark on the show. He's a Republican strategist turned Never Trumper who wants Harris to win but isn't afraid to be honest about whether her campaign is going in a direction that makes sense. On her recent turn to talking about owning a handgun, he argued it's a "CYA" move designed to reassure moderate swing voters she won't take their guns.

He argued Democrats are being too defensive on gun policy. Miller said he thinks Harris could benefit from pushing other gun restrictions that poll well, like those targeting adults under 21. But he said the campaign's priority now seems to be not pushing away moderate or center-right voters more than pursuing left-leaning ones.

Miller said the Trump Campaign is making a similar calculation. Beyond saying Harris wants to take everyone's guns, Trump has been mostly quiet on guns. Miller said he's made the reasonable calculation that most gun voters are probably already backing him, and he's trying not to alienate voters who are less enthusiastic about guns.

Ultimately, he said Harris isn't really trying to persuade committed gun voters with talk of her Glock; otherwise, she'd probably move more to the center on gun policy. Instead, she's just hoping to convince those on the fence that she's not as radical as Trump or her own policy record might suggest.

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Special Guest: Tim Miller.

As District Attorney in 2005, Harris supported Proposition H. It banned the sale, purchase, and even possession of pistols by nearly every city resident. The measure never went into effect, but only because gun-rights activists won the court fight over it before that could happen.

Chuck Michel, President of the California Rifle and Pistol Association, was the lawyer who won that case. He joined the podcast to discuss both the fight over Proposition H and the numerous other fights over gun restrictions he had with Harris during her time in California. He argued her support for several strictest-in-the-nation gun measures is more reflective of how she would govern as president than her recent remarks on owning a handgun herself.

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Special Guest: Chuck Michel.

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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris seem to have found their message on guns and are sticking to it. Assassination attempts, a major school shooting, and the race tightening haven't moved voters. Neither has any of that moved the candidates themselves.

So, we've got Bearing Arms editor Cam Edwards back on the show to look at where everything has landed. He agreed there's little reason to think the campaigns are going to change course on message or intensity at this point. But he argued both sides are taking a flawed approach.

Cam said Trump ought to do more to try and entice gun owners to turn out for him rather than just talking about how he doesn't think they will show up. On the other hand, he argued Harris trying to parry claims she'll take Americans' guns by emphasizing her own gun ownership felt inauthentic and didn't do enough to counteract some of the farther left positions she's staked out on guns in the past.

Special Guest: Cam Edwards.

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Dave Weigel is a writer for Semafor, who runs their Americana newsletter. He has been covering national politics across major outlets for decades now. He is one of the best-sourced reporters out there.

He said Kamala Harris bringing up her gun ownership at the debate was a bit of a surprise since she hasn't talked much about that before. He agreed the fact she owns a handgun for self-defense could make her more relatable to the average gun owner than Tim Walz, who centers his gun ownership around hunting. But he doubted that would become a major part of her campaign going forward.

Weigel said guns have been a relatively minor issue in the election thus far. He said that was likely due to two factors. One is the relative lack of high-profile shootings. The other is the limits on what gun control is even possible under the Supreme Court's Bruen precedent.

Special Guest: Dave Weigel.

Steve Hayes, co-founder of The Dispatch, joined us to discuss the state of the 2024 gun debate. He gave his take on the path Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have taken in their respective campaigns. Then he turned to how the recent mass shooting at a Georgia High School might shake up those positions.

Hayes noted guns have not been a top priority for voters thus far in the election. He said that was likely because there haven't been a lot of high-profile shootings this year. He argued that could change because of the new attention the Georgia shooting will bring to the issue, but he wasn't sure if it would reach the level of intense media coverage that's necessary to push either candidate one way or the other.

Special Guest: Steve Hayes.

After walking back her support for a mandatory buyback of AR-15s and the like, Kamala Harris doubled down on her support for a slew of other gun restrictions by selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP. Then Donald Trump broke his recent silence on guns by attacking Harris and doubling down on support for gun ownership.

So, we've got New York Times columnist David French back on the show to go over all of the developments. He said Harris is attempting to run away from what he called the "great awokening" of the 2020 Democratic primary, and he said Walz misled the public about having carried the guns he now wants to ban "in war." But he also noted the gun policies she and Walz have now centered their campaign on are fairly mainstream for the most part, both within the Democratic party and even among general election voters.

He admitted that Donald Trump and Republicans are better on gun rights. However, he argued that didn't justify voting for Trump over Harris because the latter is unlikely to be able to institute her gun policies given the most likely outcomes of the 2024 election. Similarly, he argued Harris was unlikely to be able to change the makeup of the Supreme Court during her first term since conservative justices probably won't retire. He said he was more concerned about what Trump could do with the presidency's power over national security than what Harris might be able to accomplish through legislative efforts.

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Special Guest: David French.

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So much has happened in the last few weeks. The NRA's corruption just reached its end stage. Although, there are still some potentially decisive decisions for the judge to make. The Democrats just swapped out Joe Biden for Kamala Harris. Then Harris's campaign walked back her most aggressive gun policy position.

Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I got several questions on those fronts. Plus, a few on my time as a CNN contributor. We did our best to answer as many as we could.

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 To discuss how this affects gun politics, we've got National Review's Charles Cooke back on the show for the first time in a while. Cooke said that Harris has been to the left of her predecessor, Joe Biden, on firearms restrictions. He noted she supported a more assertive approach to using executive power, and she backed a mandatory buyback of AR-15s.

However, Cooke argued Harris probably wouldn't track further left on guns during the campaign. He said the incentive is to either stick with the already aggressive platform, centered on an "assault weapons" ban, or try to moderate. He said Harris is likely going to have to combat her image as a very liberal California politician if she wants to beat Donald Trump.

He said he was less concerned about Trump backing away from gun policy in recent weeks. He argued Democrats are highlighting the issue to try and excite voters they're concerned won't show up to the polls whereas Republicans don't have to worry as much about that because they've already accomplished a lot of pro-gun priorities in recent years.

Oh, and we talked a little bit about rollercoasters at the end for those interested lol.

Special Guest: Charles Cooke.

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