Who better to do that than Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics? He's our go-to source for crime data analysis for good reason. He has been tracking real-time insights for years, and he just wrote a deep dive into the early crime data coming out of DC from multiple sources.

Asher said the data shows some noticeable changes over the course of the takeover. Although, he also said the Metropolitan Police Department's method of using year-to-date comparisons is misleading. And many key crime areas saw little or no change.

He said one of the big challenges in judging the crime stats comes from the fact that DC's crime was already declining in most notable areas before the takeover happened. Asher argued that makes it especially difficult to suss out whether the year-to-date declines some areas saw are actually the result of armed National Guard members or ATF agents roaming the streets of DC. Still, he said shootings and carjackings in particular appeared to experience a significant, though not massive, drop beyond what you'd expect from the previous rate of decline.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

So, we've got the nation's most widely-cited crime data analyst on the show to explain what's going on. Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics runs a crime database that updates weekly, but manages to track closely to the FBI's reports. However, he's able to report crime trends months or even years before the FBI.

Asher said the latest news is very good.

Murder is on a record decline as we move through the halfway point of 2025. Asher said the murder decline isn't just happening at a record pace, but it's likely to end at a record low as well. He noted the decline is nationwide and puts some cities below the raw number of murders seen in previous decades, not just the murder per capita rate.

Asher also analyzed some of the common reasons offered up for why murder has fallen, and said it's not easy to explain. But he also gives his preferred theory.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

The murder rate, which has been on the decline for a couple of years now, is on pace to hit a record low. That's what the early data collected by Jeff Asher's AH Datalytics indicates. Asher joins the show to break down the numbers he's seeing so far.

He said the murder rate surged during the pandemic, but it has already fallen back to those levels and kept dropping further.

While the FBI's murder data for 2025 won't be out for nearly a year, Asher collects crime data from many of the same sources. He said his data shows a huge early decline in the murder rate that would equate to an all-time low if sustained. He cautioned that the decline is likely to slow as the year progresses, but it should still hit a record.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

That's why we have Jeff Asher from AH Datalytics back on the show. He has been following and reporting crime data for decades, and he explains how dramatic the downturn in murder is compared to the incredible spike we saw just a few years ago. He said 2023 saw a record drop in murder, and 2024 is on pace to see the same.

Asher discussed how crime stats are calculated, addressed some of the critiques of them, and explained why he believes murder data is especially trustworthy this year. He also noted violent crime and property crime haven't followed murder. While they, too, have fallen in recent years, they also never saw the same kind of horrendous spike that murder did in 2020 and 2021.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

This is good news, but it's also a bit confusing. Why is the murder rate dropping after several years of increasing? Is the same effect happening with mass shootings? Does the data show the two are connected?

That's why we've got data analyst Jeff Asher back on the show. He runs AH Datalytics and collects his own crime statistics. He joined us last year when his crime data suggested 2023 would see a huge downturn in murder across the country. He was right.

This year, he's seeing an even larger decline. Mass shootings are down, too. Whatever definition you use for the awful phenomenon, and we discuss the pros and cons of the different ones out there, the downtrend is interesting--especially since it now appears to track with overall murder.

Jeff does his best to explain why these trends are happening and look forward, though he emphasizes the future is impossible to predict.

Special Guest: Jeff Asher.

Crime analyst Jeff Asher joins the show to give us insight into his methodology for tracking murder across the country. His numbers show what could be a historic reversal of the recent murder spike. The data from over 100 city police departments indicate murder may be down as much as 10 percent.

But Asher also explains the limitations of real-time data as well as the continuing problems with the FBI's data collection. Still, he says trends in even a few cities can be broadly predictive nationwide. And what he's seeing is backed up by other measures as well.

Of course, not every city is improving, and Asher highlights standout cities going in either direction.

Plus, Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I talk about the downturn in gun sales. And we have another member segment!