To help us with the deep dive, Nathaniel Boos from Black Basin Outdoors is back on the show. His company keeps charts tracking the last five years of pricing data for dozens of ammunition calibers. They also deal directly with wholesalers and suppliers.

Last May, Boos predicted ammo prices would increase, cheaper foreign brands would disappear from US shelves, American brands would grab market share, and some specialty rounds would go away due to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. He said that's exactly what happened over the past year or so.

He said the Supreme Court's ruling against the tariffs has had little to no noticeable impact since the risk of new tariffs is leaving the business atmosphere in flux. Additionally, Boos said the war in Iran is beginning to pull supply away from the civilian market. He said demand has started to tick up over the last few months as well for a variety of reasons.

Boos said those factors have all culminated in dwindling supplies and rising prices. He said it's likely things will continue to get worse over the next several months. He said it's even possible the market could be headed toward pandemic-level disruptions.

Special Guest: Nathaniel Boos.

To discuss the real-world pricing data we have Nathaniel Boos of Black Basin Outdoors on the show. Black Basin is an online ammo dealer, but it also publishes the most comprehensive pricing data on the internet. From that data Boos said we can already seen some signs of what's happening.

And the results are interesting.

For the most popular rounds, such as 9mm or 5.56 NATO, prices haven't moved very much overall. But under that steady stream are some fascinating undercurrents. As imports have become more expensive under the 10 percent tariff, American brands have largely chosen to reduce prices in an effort to retake marketshare--something that's evened pricing out in most sectors.

However, Boos said Black Basin has already seen some overseas suppliers simply stop shipping product into the US. He said part of the reason prices haven't shot up across the board yet is that the market has a glut of supply following the 2024 election. He warned prices could increase once supply dwindles and demand picks back up, likely in the Fall.

Boos argued the tariffs could end up limiting consumer options and pushing up prices over time, even eliminating supply of some less popular rounds. But in the short term, they've helped American ammo makers recapture market share while imposing little monetary pain on consumers--an outcome tariff supporters are aiming at.