To do that, we have Semafor's Dave Weigel on the show. He joined us shortly before the election to discuss each campaign's gun messaging. Now, he's back to sort through what worked, what didn't, and where things go from here.

Weigel agreed there probably wasn't enough detailed evidence to suss out exactly how well each message performed. But he said the recent downturn in Democratic support for handgun bans is probably tied to Kamala Harris emphasizing her Glock ownership. However, the fact handgun bans are so unpopular to begin with probably underscores how much her history of backing such bans drug her campaign down.

He also looked ahead at the new GOP-controlled federal government. Weigel said Donald Trump may be more motivated to undo what Joe Biden has done rather than push new gun-rights reforms of his own. He also said Congress is unlikely to pass significant new legislation but will be able to confirm a lot of pro-gun judges--though, he noted the GOP majority may be more fragile than it appears at first glance.

Special Guest: Dave Weigel.

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The time to cover the daily developments on the campaign trail is over. Now, it's time to look ahead at what the realistic expectations on gun policy should be for a potential Trump or Harris administration. To do that, I've brought somebody from an outlet on nearly the opposite side of the spectrum from The Reload.

Jennifer Mascia has been a reporter at The Trace, a non-profit publication with ties to Everytown for Gun Safety, since it was founded. She is well-sourced inside the gun-control movement and closely follows gun politics news. She joins the show to help suss out the most likely policies Trump or Harris would pursue and by what means.

Mascia and I agreed legislation is the least likely area for change since Republicans are likely to gain a Senate majority regardless of who wins the presidency--but only a narrow majority. Instead, the real action will be in court appointments and executive actions. There, Harris may be more restrained by both a Republican Senate and the amount of gun action President Joe Biden has already undertaken. Trump is likely to continue judicial appointments in line with his first term while potentially firing the ATF Director Biden appointed and undoing his executive actions, though it's hard to say how far he'd expand beyond that.

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Special Guest: Jennifer Mascia.

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That's why we have Tim Miller of The Bulwark on the show. He's a Republican strategist turned Never Trumper who wants Harris to win but isn't afraid to be honest about whether her campaign is going in a direction that makes sense. On her recent turn to talking about owning a handgun, he argued it's a "CYA" move designed to reassure moderate swing voters she won't take their guns.

He argued Democrats are being too defensive on gun policy. Miller said he thinks Harris could benefit from pushing other gun restrictions that poll well, like those targeting adults under 21. But he said the campaign's priority now seems to be not pushing away moderate or center-right voters more than pursuing left-leaning ones.

Miller said the Trump Campaign is making a similar calculation. Beyond saying Harris wants to take everyone's guns, Trump has been mostly quiet on guns. Miller said he's made the reasonable calculation that most gun voters are probably already backing him, and he's trying not to alienate voters who are less enthusiastic about guns.

Ultimately, he said Harris isn't really trying to persuade committed gun voters with talk of her Glock; otherwise, she'd probably move more to the center on gun policy. Instead, she's just hoping to convince those on the fence that she's not as radical as Trump or her own policy record might suggest.

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Special Guest: Tim Miller.

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We tend to interview subject matter experts on whatever the biggest story of the week is. But with the election in full swing, I want to make sure we're paying attention to that. And I think it's especially important to take a look at those gun owners who don't necessarily fit into traditional partisan boxes, especially since that group appears to have grown over the past several years.

That's why when I saw a short but interesting profile of Ben Beauchemin in a New York Times report during the lead-up to the New Hampshire primary, I thought it would be good to interview him. Luckily, he agreed to come on. 

Ben owns a gun shop and custom AR-building business in New Hampshire, which might seem like a pretty easy indicator of his politics. But his beliefs don't necessarily line up perfectly with either party. And he's grown increasingly disillusioned with the political choices they offer up.

He said it would be difficult for him to vote for President Joe Biden because of his pursuit of new gun restrictions. But he'd also have trouble voting for former president Donald Trump for a myriad of other reasons. And he isn't sold on former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley either.

Ben also said he's been unhappy with the gun-rights movement in recent years. And he gave his view of how the industry has handled the shift toward gun owners with different backgrounds and beliefs, like himself.

Plus, I give my firsthand report of what it was like inside the NRA's corruption trial up in New York City this week.